Tajikistan

Publications

Situation and Priorities

Social protection situation

Tajikistan invests 4% of GDP for social protection and ensures effective coverage of 26.6% of population with at least one social protection benefit. This is well below world’s average at 46,9% . The annual growth of total spending for the social protection sector averaged 8% in nominal terms during from 2015-2018, and comprised 15.5% of aggregate government spending in 2020. However, as a share of  GDP it was declining and slightly increased in 2020 a result of the government’s response to COVID-19 outbreak and additional mitigation measures.

Poverty rate has shrunk significantly in 2010-2020, which enabled the government to increase its social spending and finance infrastructure projects. The absolute poverty level decreased from about 45% in 2010 down to 27.5% in 2019.

Nevertheless, the social protection system needs to expand both its coverage and adequacy. The system is fragmented, with a Labour Code, twenty laws, and about two hundred by-laws and other regulatory instruments. The social security system is managed by several institutions - the Ministry of Health and Social Protection and the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Migration, as well as four different agencies at the national level and numerous social protection departments at the regional and local level, with no effective coordination between them.

A recent survey-based study commissioned by UNDP reports that 36.7 per cent of respondents who had a job in March-May 2020 had in fact worked informally, without a contract or for an unregistered enterprise, and 26.9 per cent of surveyed micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) had non-registered workers in their rank/s. Other sources suggest that informality could be as high as 60 per cent.

The Government adopted National Strategy for Social Protection for the period up to 2030 in December 2022. Although the strategy focuses on non-contributory social protection programmes, it proposes measures that promote comprehensive approach to social security guarantees and attempts to align it with employment policy. It also envisages development or revision of social protection legal basis. Support for transition from informal to formal economy and extension of social protection coverage to informal workers is also among Government’s priorities.

COVID-19 and other crises

The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan established a COVID-19 Interagency Task Force which was created in January 2020 and, following the Decree of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, replaced in March 2020 by the Republican Task Force on Strengthening Activities Countering COVID-19, which is composed of representatives of key government institutions and is chaired by the Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, on June 5, 2020 the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of Population (MoHSPP) developed a Social Protection Preparedness and Response Plan which determined priority intervention areas and key social protection support measures in addressing the challenges induced by the COVID-19 pandemic for the most vulnerable people. The Plan is estimated to cost $364 million and had been developed in coordination with, and subsequently supported by, international development partners. Specifically, the Plan consisted of 23 broadly defined measures for implementation during March-December 2020, including:

  • A health sector and social protection response package to assist the poor and vulnerable;
  • A package of economic measures to ensure food security; and

A package of economic measures to safeguard enterprises prone to being severely affected

Government and social partner priorities

In September 2016, the Government of Tajikistan adopted the long-term National Development Strategy (NDS) for the period until 2030 and embarked on a new path to economic development, to be rolled out over the next 15 years. The NDS highlights the need to shift from remittances-driven growth model towards greater complexity and diversification of the economy fueled by private sector growth and shared prosperity.

The social implication of accommodating such a shift in strategy and policy is significant. In particular, the NDS sets the wheels in motion in order to half poverty and eliminate extreme poverty; double the GDP; improve ranking in the UN's Human Development Index and the World Bank's Doing Business; significantly increase social protection spending; and raise the share of the middle class up to 50% of the population. Yet achieving these targets requires GDP growth rates of at least 9% per annum and uninterrupted on-budget and off-budget resource allocations to support critical governance reforms.

According to the NDS,  the main policy priorities of the social protection sector include: (i) institutional modernization of the social protection system, (ii) ensuring long-term sustainability of the pension system, and (iii) adopting additional protective and incentivizing measures to expand social protection coverage. On this basis, the NDS envisages achieving the following outcomes by 2030:

  • Poverty monitoring mechanism, as well as identification and eligibility of financial deprivation, particularly at sub-national level, are in place and fully operational;
  • An electronic database of social benefits/services recipients is developed (by beneficiaries, age groups, and types of settlements and geographic areas);
  • Contributory element of the public pension system is set up and effectively functioning;
  • ‘Single window’ is created for registering and administering social protection services;
  • Pension and benefit amounts are raised while also preserving fiscal sustainability (and pension-to-salary ratio is maintained at a minimum level of 40% in line with international social security standards);
  • Targeting of social protection and social services to socially vulnerable citizens is improved;
  • An inclusive and participatory environment is created for active participation of vulnerable groups in socio-economic life;
  • Extension of social security coverage to workers in informal economy
  • Favorable conditions are created for inclusion of vulnerable groups (such as the elderly, boarding school graduates, etc.) in community through rehabilitation at community level;
  • Sustainable professional development of personnel in the social sector is created.

ILO Projects and Programmes

Results

Funding gaps / Support the ILO

US$ 2,000,000

Support the development of an effective social protection system electronic information management system

Impact: N° of persons with better access to social protection (single registry, online application, one stop-service) - 1,000 000 citizens
US$ 600,000

Development of a legal and policy basis for effective social insurance system

Impact: N° of persons legally covered - 1,000 000 workers
US$ 500,000

Development of an action plan to extend coverage to informal workers

Impact: N° of persons potentially covered by a strategy - 1,000,000 workers
US$ 400,000

Identification of fiscal space for social protection and improved public finance management in social protection sector

Impact: N° of persons with higher benefits (adequacy) - 1,000,000 citizens

Support the ILO

Workspaces

ILO Experts

Sobir Aminov
National Coordinator